Crystal Ball, Clairvoyant, Fortune Telling ... Can Predictive Analytic Deliver the Future ?

Question 1: Many predictive analytic models are based on neural network technologies. What is the role of neural networks in predictive analytics? How can neural networks help predict the likelihood of future events. In answering these questions, specifically reference Blue Cross Blue Shield of Tennessee.

The roles of neural networks in predictive analytics are Function approximation, Forecasting, Classification and Clustering.

Predictive analytics can be helped with neural networks when there is a very large quantity of information available for examination. Neural networks examine literally thousands of bits of information to find relationships and patterns. The likelihood of future events in neural networks are assisted by the fact that they can learn to adjust to new circumstances, lend themselves to parallel processing, function without having all the information or having that information in a structured format, copy with huge amounts to data with different variables, and analyze relationships found in the data
Blue Cross Blue Shield of Tennessee has a neural network which they use to predict health resources that will be needed after certain procedures. The patterns they find can help determine if a patient will have a reaction to the procedure. Having this data quickly can help save health care costs and patients.

Question 2: What if the Richmond police began to add demographic data to its predictive analytics system to further attempt to determine the type of person (by demographic) who would commit a crime by demographic data (ethnicity, gender, income level, and so on) good or bad?

There are good and bad to add demographic data to the predictive analytics system. The good thing is that police not only can predict crime the particular crime will occur, they even can focus on certain suspect and prevent the crime happen. If the police have use demographic data in the predictive analytics system, the possibility of 911 happen would be lower a lot.

However, it is hard to predict the true attitude of a human being. Although some might be lower probability, anyone can commit a crime no matter who is she/he, rich or not rich or even good or bad character. It is not human to say someone will commit a crime just because of his/her ethnicity, gender, income level, and so on. Is all muslim terrorist? Or because your skin is black then you certainly violence? or because you commit a theft once means you forever will steal? The answer is definitely not. We are using technology to have better life, not use technology to make transform us to become robot.

Question 3: In the movie Gattaca, predictive analytics were used to determine the most successful career for a person. Based on DNA information, the system determined whether or not an individual was able to advance through an education track to become something like an engineer or if a person should complete only a lower level of education and become a junitor. The government then acted on the system’s recommendations and placed people in various career tracks. Is this good or bad use of technology? How is this different from the variety of personal test you can take that informs you of your aptitude for different career?

Using technology system to determine a person future based on DNA is certainly a crazy thinking. Yes, by using technology, People may predict a person strength or weakness from the DNA however,  if the system show that your DNA is very suitable to become a lawyer, does it means that even you do not put afford, you will still become a lawyer? Did everyone still remember the story of turtle and rabbit? From DNA or even physically, Rabbit is faster than turtle but if rabbit did not put afford, it will still lose to a turtle.

 

Using technology system to determine a person future is totally different with personal test. A personal test is a test where let you know what is your current attitude and by having such attitude, which career suitable you. It did not mention you only can become what stated in the personal test. The lesson behind the personal test is you must change in order to suitable to the career u aim for.

Question 4: What role can geographic information system (GISs) play in the use of predictive analytics? As you answer this question, specifically reference FedEx’s use of predictive analytics to:

(1)    Determine which customers will respond negatively to a price increase and
(2)    Project additional revenues from proposed drop-box locations.

GIS design to analyze information in map form. By knowing a particular area preference, FedEx could predict that the mindset of the customer toward the new policy or price. Whether the people in that area could accept or could not. If a place is developed and buying power is higher, normally the acceptance of increasing prices is better as long as you provide better services as their aim is to have best services rather than cost saving services. Besides, Fedex can choose area that suitable to put dropbox by viewing the surrounding. If the surrounding is more towards fast vihickle, it means that it is not suitable for vehicle or people to stop and drop mail into the drop box.

Question 5: The department of Defense (DoD) and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are combining predictive analytics with visualization technologies to predict the probability that a terrorist attack will occur. For example, suspected terrorists caught on security cameras who loiter too long in a given place might signal their intent to carry out terrorist attack. How can this type of predictive analytics be used in airport? At what other buildings and structures might this be used?

Predictive analytics could be a powerful tool in fighting terrorism. For example, if airport security saw a suspicious person frequenting an airline terminal, they could detain him, check his background and if the findings warrant, do more in-depth research on things like his travel activity. The results, when compared to other terrorists’ profiles, might reveal his link to a terrorist group.

Predictive profiling offers a unique approach to threat mitigation that begins from the point of view of the aggressor/adversary and is based on actual adversary's methods of operation, their modus operandi. This method is applicable to securing virtually any environment and to meeting any set of security requirements. When predictively profiling a situation, person or object one identifies suspicion indicators that correlate with an adversary's method of operation. For example, if a security officer observes a person walking with an empty suitcase in an airport (the suitcase appears very light; it bounces off the floor) he may identify this suspicious behavior as an indication of a possible terrorist or criminal method of operation because:

• The person may be involved in theft or shop lifting (using the empty suitcase to stash what he would steal)
• The person may be involved in surveillance activities (the suitcase is only a prop to fit the airport environment)
• The person has dropped a bomb somewhere in the airport and is now exiting

Other than airport to use the predictive analytics with visualization technologies, other buildings such as museums, public library, shopping centre and historical places (such as monuments) can apply the same method to detect the possible terrorists. The public places with crowd can easily become the target of terrorists as they are not easily detected and can escape within the public, not easily being spotted.